Risk Parameter Tool

Probability Parameter Calculator

Convert price, subjective win probability, market-structure price, and risk discipline into executable risk units. This calculates exposure, not a match conclusion.

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input

Complete Risk Unit Parameters

Conservative users should default to 1/4 or 1/2 probability factors. For cups, small samples, or incomplete match-day information, reduce confidence or step down directly.

Research Budget Budget Source Account Pause Line % Reference Decimal Estimated Win Rate % Source Price Adjustment % Probability Factor Discipline Level Confidence Multiplier Single-Entry Cap % Minimum Research Unit Maximum Daily Records Analysis Type Adverse Streak Tolerance Planning Cycle Manual Advantage Adjustment % Drawdown Rule

Use your own match assessment for win probability, not the price-implied probability. If the estimate is only slightly above breakeven, use a small unit or skip it.

Execution Plan

Staged Execution Table

Stage	Risk Unit	Trigger Condition

Instructions for use

When to Reduce the Risk Unit

Small SampleCups, lower-level leagues, or unclear lineupsDownshift

Market-Structure ChangeRapid price drop or key-player absencepause

Adverse StreakStep down by rule after the adverse streak threshold; do not add exposurecontrol